Probability estimates don’t always help decision making.In Spring 2011 Barack Obama had to decide whether to approve a US Navy SEAL raid on the compound in Abbottabad that was believed to be the…May 16May 16
Planning beats probability — Part 2I recently published an overview of Everton’s 2023 relegation battle, and I made the argument that our innate attempt to predict the…Mar 42Mar 42
Planning beats probability — Part 1In 2023 Everton were in a relegation battle. The team I support were in danger of dropping out of the Premier League, and I was…Mar 43Mar 43
Creating good multiple-choice question examsI can remember encountering multiple-choice questions (MCQs) as a student — I assumed that the instructor was neglecting their duties as…Feb 5, 2021Feb 5, 2021
Which way forward for Belarus?On Sunday, August 9th the people of Belarus will go to the polls for the 6th Presidential election since independence. The incumbent is…Jul 31, 2020Jul 31, 2020
Enlightened Management“Progress is sustainable, indefinitely. But only by people who engage in a particular kind of thinking and behaviour — the problem-solving…Jun 25, 2020Jun 25, 2020
Sources of Consumer SurplusFollowing Sam Bowman’s excellent list of “Things I recommend you buy and use” (which inspired Rob Wiblin’s edition), here is my own…May 31, 2020May 31, 2020
How homeschooling has impacted my teachingWould you believe it? I’ve spent years producing original, expert commentary on the economy and financial markets (see Kaleidic Economics)…May 30, 2020May 30, 2020
What should (chief) economists do?In a 1964 article Nobel Laureate James Buchanan famously asked, “what should economists do?” He was concerned by a trend for economic…Apr 19, 2019Apr 19, 2019
